Natural Gas Demand Estimation for India: Error Correction Modelling
Atul Rawat1, Sumeet Gupta2, T. Joji Rao3, Sushil Kumar Rai4
1Atul Rawat, Department of Energy Management, University of Petroleum & Energy Studies, Dehradun (Uttarakhand), India.
2Sumeet Gupta, Department of General Management, University of Petroleum & Energy Studies, Dehradun (Uttarakhand), India.
3T. Joji Rao, Department of General Management, University of Petroleum & Energy Studies, Dehradun (Uttarakhand), India.
4Sushil Kumar Rai, Department of Economics & IB, University of Petroleum & Energy Studies, Dehradun (Uttarakhand), India.
Manuscript received on 27 August 2019 | Revised Manuscript received on 03 September 2019 | Manuscript Published on 14 September 2019 | PP: 429-437 | Volume-8 Issue-5S3, July 2019 | Retrieval Number: E10920785S319/19©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijeat.E1092.0785S319
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: Share of fossil fuel in India’s primary energy mix is around 92% with natural gas contributing 6% in it. The power, fertilizer and city gas distribution (CGD) sector are the major gas-consuming sector in India. Despite the government efforts to increase the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix, the country still has low per capita gas consumption. In order to enhance natural gas consumption in the country, the Indian government has set up a target to increase natural gas share in the energy mix to 15% by 2022. Therefore, the issue of estimation of the natural gas demand is addressed in the present paper to understand the dynamics of the natural gas market. The error correction model (ECM) is applied at a national and sectoral level to examine the domestic gas demand in India. The study reveals the following findings: (a) At the national and sectoral level, the last year gas consumption is an only statistically significant factor; (b) Price, population and income are not statistically significant at national and sectoral level and (c) Demand for natural gas is price inelastic at the national level.
Keywords: Demand Estimation, Error Correction, India, Natural Gas.
Scope of the Article: Natural Language Processing and Machine Translation