Forecasting Past and Future Trend of Physio Chemical Parameters in Dal Lake, Srinagar Kashmir, India using Statistical Analysis and Modelling
Ishtiyaq Ahmad Rather1, Abdul Qayoom Dar2
1Ishtiyaq Ahmad Rather*,Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Srinagar, J&K, India.
2Abdul Qayoom Dar, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Srinagar, J&K, India.
Manuscript received on November 27, 2019. | Revised Manuscript received on December 15, 2019. | Manuscript published on December 30, 2019. | PP: 1043-1051 | Volume-9 Issue-2, December, 2019. | Retrieval Number: B3435129219/2020©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijeat.B3435.129219
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: The paper presents an overview of recent physiochemical investigations on Dal lake with emphasis on lake, longterm water quality monitoring data from Lake and Water Development Authority (LAWDA1997-2017, published and unpublished data) with present analysis of Dal Lake to compare the water trends for pH, dissolved oxygen, chemical oxygen demand(COD),NO3 -N, Total Phosphorus(TP) and Transparency. The main sampling efforts include visit to 36 samplingsitesto find the past and future trend of these physio chemicalparameters(pH, DO, COD, NO3 -N, TP and Transparency).Maximum decreasing trendline was found for pH in Nigeen basin in summer season and lowertrends were found in Nehru park basin in winter season. Maximum decreasing trendline was found for DO in Nigeen basin in summer season and lower trends were found in Nehru park basin in winter season. COD has shown maximum increasing trends in all basins mostly in Nigeen basin in summer season and lower decreasing trends in Hazratbal basin in autumn season, concentration of NO3 -N and TP have shown increasing trends in all basins of lake mostly in Nigeen basin in summer season and lower increasing trends in Nehru park basin in winter season. Trend of transparency has shown decreasing trends in all basins of lake particularly in Nigeen basin in summer season and lower trends can be seen mostly in Nehru park basin in winter season. Tourism influx, maximum use of pesticides and fertilizers in the horticultureandagriculture fields during the growing season (June–August) in the Dal Lake shows a drastic change of these parameters through these years and the influx of tourists visiting this lake has increased in the summer months which isresponsible for eutrophication of Dal Lake and needs serious managerial actions.
Keywords: Dal lake, Future trend, Water quality, Eutrophication I