The Empirical Research on Causal Relationship Between Export and Foreign Investments in the Economy of Uzbekistan Based on Granger Test
Sherzod I. Mustafakulov1, Bobir O. Tursunov2, Ulugbek А. Tursunov3
1Sherzod I. Mustafakulov, D.Sc. professor, department of Industrial Economics, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent – Republic of Uzbekistan.
2Bobir O. Tursunov, Ph.D. student, Department of Management, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent – Republic of Uzbekistan.
3Ulugbek А. Tursunov, Ph.D. student of Tashkent state university of economics, Tashkent – Republic of Uzbekistan.
Manuscript received on September 23, 2019. | Revised Manuscript received on October 15, 2019. | Manuscript published on October 30, 2019. | PP: 4631-4635 | Volume-9 Issue-1, October 2019 | Retrieval Number: A2924109119/2019©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijeat.A2924.109119
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: The relationship between export and foreign investments is becoming more and more relevant topic in the economies of many countries in the world. This relationship, its direction and mechanism are, particularly crucial for emerging markets. This paper investigates the direction of the relationship between the export and foreign investments of Uzbekistan based on the data on previous years. Since the government have been reforming the macroeconomic policy of Uzbekistan gradually towards openness in recent years, it is very important to find the direction of the association before forming national strategy to encourage the export of the country and to attract foreign investments to the country. In this study Granger causality test is used to determine the direction of the relationship using time series data from 2005 to 2017. With respect to the findings of the study, it can be seen that the volume of export has positive impact on the foreign investments. However, there is no sufficient evidence to support the idea that foreign investment has significant impact on the volume of export. The results conclude that in Uzbekistan, export volume is one of the key factors that have been contributing to the attractiveness of investment climate in recent years.
Keywords: Chi-square, export volume, lagged values, foreign investments, macroeconomic analysis, macroeconomic indicators, regression analysis.