Modelling the Impact of Institutional Environment on Key Macroeconomic Indicators
Volodymyr Pikhotskyi1, Yurii Nikolaienko2, Zhanna Deri3, Oleksandr Zaitsev4, Olha Havryliuk5, Iryna Dmytrenko6
1Volodymyr Pikhotskyi, Department of Finance, Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, Ukraine
2Yurii Nikolaienko, Department of Finance, Banking and Insurance, Chernihiv National University of Technology, Chernihiv, Ukraine
3Zhanna Derii, Department of Theoretical and Applied Economics, Chernihiv National University of Technology, Chernihiv, Ukraine
4Oleksandr Zaitsev, Department of Finance and Entrepreneurship, Sumy State University, Sumy, Ukraine
5Olha Havryliuk, Department of Accounting and Audit, Lutsk National Technical University, Lutsk, Ukraine
6Iryna Dmytrenko, Higher State Educational Institution “Banking University”, Kyiv, Ukraine
Manuscript received on September 23, 2019. | Revised Manuscript received on October 15, 2019. | Manuscript published on October 30, 2019. | PP: 6957-6963 | Volume-9 Issue-1, October 2019 | Retrieval Number: A2133109119/2019©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijeat.A2133.109119
Open Access | Ethics and Policies | Cite | Mendeley
© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: The characteristics of the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators are important indicators of the state and prospects of the country’s economy as a whole. Interest in the study of macroeconomic dynamics is ensured by the uneven growth rates of the main macroeconomic indicators (GDP, consumption, investment) of different countries, as well as the growing lag of the poorest regions of the world from the leading ones in terms of economic development. Existing studies do not fully explain the differences in the behavior of macroeconomic indicators in countries whose economies are comparable for most of the fundamental factors considered. Recently, institutional factors have been used to explain these differences. The insufficient level of development of institutions limits economic growth; this problem is especially relevant in modern countries. Part of the resources is spent on protecting property rights, on overcoming barriers associated with corruption. To overcome the lag in institutional development, it is necessary to identify the mechanism of the influence of institutional parameters on macroeconomic indicators and assess the feasibility of improving various institutions from the point of view of further economic growth. The proposed approach to forecasting macroeconomic indicators taking into account the main components of the group of institutional variables can be applied directly in the process of building forecasts. It is also worth noting the proposed method of testing the hypothesis of a better forecast, which allows you to get results that are independent of the specification of the model.
Keywords: Institutional Environment, Impact, Macroeconomic Indicators, Modelling.