The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Real Estate Price Forecasting Modelling in Abuja Nigeria
Musa Abubakar Alkali1, Ibrahim Atan Bin Sipan2, Muhammad Najib Razali3
1Musa Abubakar Alkali, Department of Built Environment and Survey, University Technology Malaysia, Johor Malaysia.
2Ibrahim Atan Bin Sipan, Department of Built Environment and Survey, University Technology Malaysia, Johor Malaysia.
3Muhammad Najib Razali, Department of Built Environment and Survey, University Technology Malaysia, Johor Malaysia.
Manuscript received on 01 September 2019 | Revised Manuscript received on 10 September 2019 | Manuscript Published on 23 September 2019 | PP: 67-72 | Volume-8 Issue-5C, May 2019 | Retrieval Number: E10090585C19/19©BEIESP | DOI: 10.35940/ijeat.E1009.0585C19
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© The Authors. Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering and Sciences Publication (BEIESP). This is an open access article under the CC-BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Abstract: This paper examined the impact of macroeconomic variables on real estate price forecasting modelling in Abuja, Nigeria using the family of Box-Jenkins ARIMA models. The ARIMA and ARIMAX models were used to forecast real estate residential price in Abuja, Nigeria using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2017Q in Naira (N). The outcome revealed that, macroeconomic variables such as consumer price index, price of crude oil, exchange rate of Naira against US dollar, GDP, interest rate, household income has significant positive impact on the real estate residential price forecasting models of 2 bedroom flat, 3 bedroom flat and 5 bedroom flat, while they have strong negative impact on the price forecasting model of 4 bedroom flat. Moreover, ARIMA and ARIMAX provides best out of sample forecasting models.
Keywords: ARIMA, ARIMAX, Forecasting Models, Macroeconomic Variables.
Scope of the Article: Social Sciences